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10-year Treasury yield continues move higher after weak Treasury auction www.cnbc.com/2025/04/08/us-treasury-yields-investors-parse-us-china-trade-tit-for-tat.html

1819 sats \ 29 comments \ @siggy47 8 Apr econ

Some traders have speculated foreign owners are selling some Treasuries, putting upward pressure on yields.

It seems to me that if China wants to really fight back, dumping treasuries, and suggesting other countries facing these tariffs dump US debt as leverage against the US makes sense.

What do stackers think? This could get ugly.

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122 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 8 Apr

Crazy. Stocks down, gold down, bitcoin down. Yields up (which means price of bonds is down.)

So people are just selling everything and sitting on cash?

Normally I would've thought gold would be up at least.

95 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 8 Apr

As Doug Casey likes to say "It's metaphysically impossible for everything to be down."

57 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 9 Apr

it could get ugly, but if they do that, whatever they are holding that is usd would also get ugly. You would be hurting yourself more.

57 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 9 Apr

China is adopting the right strategy but they don't hold infinite bonds

24 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 OP 9 Apr

Yes, they have been reducing their exposure for years.

57 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 9 Apr

Treasury has to be very concerned about this considering they are trying to get rates down.

Fed will have to buy it all.

189 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 OP 9 Apr

That's where this is heading.

47 sats \ 0 replies \ @BlokchainB 9 Apr

The Fiat circle jerk

46 sats \ 12 replies \ @Cje95 9 Apr

With 9 trillion we have to issue in the next 6 months thats bad bad new.... that was one of the things the tariffs had done that had been good was it had stopped the climbs of yields.

I do think we are going to get a bunch of trade deals cut over the next couple of weeks though

0 sats \ 11 replies \ @Bell_curve 9 Apr

9 trillion seems high? China has been selling since 2020

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 9 Apr

Treasuries are hitting the end of their length and so we have to reissue them along with the interest payments for others like normal

0 sats \ 9 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9 Apr

Yellen relied heavily on short term USTs. https://reason.com/2025/01/10/janet-yellens-short-term-thinking-could-cost-the-u-s-big/ Few buyers seriously believe they are good for more than a few years anymore. US insolvency is imminent.

10 sats \ 8 replies \ @Cje95 9 Apr

Do you know what the word imminent even means? Cause huge swing in miss in using it here pal…

0 sats \ 7 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9 Apr

Yes I do- do you?

Insolvency for US is imminent.

ie- About to occur; impending. "in imminent danger." Threatening to occur immediately; near at hand; impending; -- said especially of misfortune or peril. Similar: impending

Get it yet?

Good luck rolling over the short term debt bomb this year. 50 years of living beyond your means means US govt insolvency is imminent.

10 sats \ 6 replies \ @Cje95 9 Apr

Using your own definition we are in imminent danger of a pandemic, an asteroid hitting the earth possibly killing humanity, and our own sun swallowing us. Those are all impending things that will happen.

There is a way people use words and impending isn't the correct one even if it fits. Historically countries collapse when they militarily become weak and that's not an issue at all with the US as our 20-30 year old tech is still further advanced than near peer advisories. Would they do significant damage? Oh sure but at the end of it they don't have the ability to sustain a war when the frontlines wont be anywhere near US soil

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36 sats \ 0 replies \ @kurszusz 10 Apr

I don't think China wants to "fight"...it just wants to show that it has "tools" too. This whole thing will calm down after 2-3 months I think. BUT... Regarding the 10 year yield... I think we are not far from an economic collapse (worldwide) like in 1929 (Black Thursday). As for the price of gold... I'm waiting until 3100, and from there I predict a fairly rapid, but mostly constant decline from 2026 (countries will increase the money supply, and this always caused a decrease in the price of gold).

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Fabs 9 Apr

Cash out and buy back lower.

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9 Apr

China has won the trade war. US exceptionalism is passe. The US empire is hopelessly mired in its reserve currency 'limitless credit' fiat debt. The USAs one last major strategic asset (USD reserve currency status) is rapidly losing credibility. USD petrodollar hegemony is no longer viable beyond the short term quick fix cash grab liquidity boost that are Trumps tariffs. China is investing its surpluses in building its global productive and infrastructure empire- it does not want or need USTs anymore. The China Development Bank provides more development funding than the World Bank. China is poised to open mBridge or similar digital/CBDC based trade payments protocols for wider use. Respondents will be probably required to have CBDCs compatible with Chinas. This will create a new alternative to SWIFTs slow, antiquated and expensive 1960s analogue payments system. China has already implicitly demonstrated the capacity to process trade payments for Iran and Russia outside of the USD/SWIFT hegemony...via shadow banking probably routed via Hong Kong. With Saudi Arabia having signed up to BRICS and mBridge the petrodollar is walking dead on borrowed time. China is reverse engineering the wests international banking hegemony via Hong Kong and digital payments protocols.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 9 Apr

You know China is a huge debt bomb as well right? Its cities, providence, and localities shadow debt is so bad China doesn't know what to do with it.

You can reverse engineer all you want but it doesn't work if you don't innovate and well China isn't. There “new” nuclear reactors the US did 70 years ago. There projects from silk and road are going belly up across the world since COVID or countries have just straight up canceled them.

Loaning the most money in the world doesn't equal success. Reverse engineering doesn't equal success. In Western cultures CBDCs have a huge issue with privacy.

Also you know during the Cold War their was trade outside the US right? India and the USSR are prime examples but trying to do that in 2025 has shown not to work. China manipulates the hell out of their currency and no one wants a currency whose value could crash.

BRICS is driving straight into a wall because none of the countries want to agree to a currency that isn't there's being the chosen one. Then add in who controls that and that is why historically it all boils down to one country and one currency. Baskets of currencies just dont work.

The data and history also backs up all of my points. India and China literally have their soldiers beat each other to death ever couple of years and have been building up militarily along their border lol

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9 Apr

It is true China allowed their property sector to become heavily over leveraged.

Greedy western funds were the biggest losers. https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/blackrock-vanguard-shareholdings-in-evergrande-plummet-by-more-than-250m-20210928 https://www.newsweek.com/blackrock-could-see-short-end-stick-potential-divvy-evergrande-assets-1632103

Chinas problem is a fast growing middle class who want investment options and this is not a bad problem to have. Certainly Chinas financial system is not as advanced as the US/west but its productive economy has outstripped the wests decaying financialised manufacturing and China and Chinese are now growing richer and increasingly developing financial and investment regimes and less and less reliant upon western options like USTs.

India and Russia have always has a close economic and military relationship. Now Russia is supplying China with nuclear sub technology. Yes there is natural and ancient tension between India and China. Just as you probably know there have been wars between the US and Mexico and that the US has meddled in most of Latin America.

Trump has realised US global hegemony is no longer viable and is seeking retreat to the regional hegemony of the Americas it enjoyed from the late 19th century. Europe is up for grabs and S.E. Asia is already increasingly under Chinese tribute. Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are all firmly back under the ancient regime of Chinese tribute.

Japan and S.Korea might find they are in the medium term - in terms of trade they already are highly integrated and dependent upon China- with US tariffs that process of Sino regional hegemony accelerates.

Winning the trade war precedes all else and all else takes time but is almost inevitable once you have built an economy that is more competitive than all others. Monetary hegemony inevitably develops for the dominant trading nation/s. USA is no longer dominant after 50 years of trade surpluses. At least Trump understands this even if most Americans are still in denial.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Cje95 9 Apr

Dude you really think China and Japan are going to come together?

Also its Russia gave nuclear sub tech to North Korea China already has had it and even launched a nuclear sub… now it sunk to the bottom immediately and was a complete loss but still.

Finally since this is going in circles China has a population cliff and has over 20% unemployment of young adults. That's not economic boom that's war type of situation. China is continuing to ramp up its own isolationism with its population because pesky freedom of speech is an issue to their power. They are one death of their leader from calamity as just like with Russia there is no one in the wings. He killed all those people off over the years

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9 Apr

Japan is already heavily enmeshed with China in economic terms. Culturally there is deep antipathy but 'its the economy stupid'. In the end trade is wealth and wealth is power.

And China has hands won the trade war. USA is a fading power reliant, dangerously reliant, upon credit lines that come from outside of the US. The US Inc has been reliant upon financialisation based on USD hegemony which has weakened its productive capacity to such a chronic extent that to restore the US as a productive economy exporting manufactured goods is simply not credible.

China is raising its retirement age for blue collar women from 50-55, white collar women from 55-60 and men from 57-62? China leads the world in robotics and automation. China can build a robot equivalent to a $50,000 US made one, for $3000.

Agree Chinas culture is more autocratic and collectivist than US, but nations emerging into empire are usually much less liberal than they become as they become powerful and wealthy.

The 'rights' westerners might take for granted are only possible because the west has raped, pillages, enslaved and subjugated every other culture on the planet. Except China was too big and culturally deep and alien to fully subjugate, and now China is economically stronger than the US and building up its empire as the US sinks deeper into debt and decline.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @DmCMG 9 Apr freebie