@jack

2399 stacked

I'm a former firefox user but the web is now converging on the Blink browser engine. Besides ideological considerations are there spots where firefox has certain usecases vs chromium?

Two separate things happened -- The phrase "cultural marxism" became "marxist cultural analysis" over time in cultural studies, and conservative political theorists began using the term (capital-C) "Cultural Marxism" to mean something separate from "marxist cultural analysis." This paper is a good survey of how the meaning of the word has changed over time.

It's similar to the word "ebonics" which was the previous word for "AAVE" -- there is no page for "Ebonics" as it was originally used (being a synonym for AAVE) but instead its past meaning.

Strongest news I've heard for lightning in many months! I'm trying to get some users to pay for some online service I'm providing using bitcoin/lightning but the hardest part is initial setup of a wallet and an annoying kyc flow. Many of them have cashapp so this will make it a lot easier.

Congrats! Can't wait to see how the next few years go for the site!

Relevant bit from the research:

[...] We show that while the balances held at intermediaries have been steadily increasing since 2014, even by the end of 2020 it comprises only 5.5 million bitcoins, about one-third of Bitcoin in circulation. In contrast, individual investors collectively control 8.5 million bitcoins, almost half the bitcoins in circulation by the end of 2020. Within individual holdings, there is significant skewness in ownership.

Full paper here: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29396/w29396.pdf -- ownership concentration is discussed on page 26. Beyond the headline, the paper shows interesting figures such as real volume breakdown by entity type, clustering relationships between exchanges, and how the researchers calculate and visualize clustering.

Found a little bug -- long-clicked on the bolt and added 500 sats. (did not short click, just long clicked) The bolt is not lit up at all on this post view page or the home page. Just clicked on it again and it's blue now.

And congrats on getting funding!!!!! Can't wait to see what's in store.

What sphinx of hash trees and blocks bashed open its skull and unleashed its ideas and models?

Immutable ledgers! Uncountable transactions! Lost fiat and unowned dollars! Men screaming on telegram! Suburban shitcoiners sobbing in armies! Old men falling to scams!

Bitcoin whose mind is churning turbines! Bitcoin whose power runs money! Bitcoin whose mouth is one millions tweets! Bitcoin whose soul is electricity without banks! Bitcoin whose fate is against state armies and knowing customers! Bitcoin whose ASICs hum and whir in the winter!

Bitcoin in whom we are a bank without a body! Bitcoin who frightens governments out of natural ecstasy! Bitcoin who I abandon! Wake up in Bitcoin, light streaming out of the sky!

They broke their backs lifting Bitcoin to Heaven! BIPs, nodes, blockversions and no-ops! Lifting the brain to Heaven which exists and is everywhere about us! Forks, ticks, futures, and taproots!

Visions! Omens! Dreams! Promises! Boatloads of wealth, down on the rocks of time.

Survey methodology:

An online survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers was conducted by 8 Acre Perspective between August 12, 2021, and August 20, 2021. All respondents were between the ages of 25 and 64, and had primary or shared responsibility for household financial decision-making. All respondents were involved in some form of personal investing, with at least $10,000 in household investable assets (excluding workplace retirement plans or real estate), and at least $50,000 in household income.

I feel it should be "26% of American Personal Investors" or something similar. Still a high number though! Especially the decline in "definitely/probably would not" in the "Consideration of Bitcoin Investment Product" section.

Another interesting bit -- didn't realize so many were buying through money apps:

For example, 30% of investors chose to buy Bitcoin with a digital wallet or money app, such as Venmo or CashApp

This article is dangerous and disingenuous. The author goes from explaining that the 30y treasury guarantees a lump sum in the far future, and compares this to bitcoin saying it has a similar financial function? Then he bolds the following statement:

Bitcoin is a new type of zero-coupon bond.

How could bitcoin be a bond? I challenge anyone to find someone that agrees with this statement. How can it be considered a fixed-income security? Even if it has no coupons, what is its principal? Who is the issuer? He's calling it a fixed-income instrument, while bitcoin does not guarantee a fixed income. How can anyone in their right mind say they're a CFA then write a column like this suggesting someone to think about investing an asset class in life insurance for a period five times longer than the asset class has existed?

A bitcoin may last forever (may -- nobody knows what crazy attacks or exploits may be possible against the blockchain over 60 years!) but how does that guarantee its value? Bitcoin and blockchain technology as financial instruments is very young and I really think it's unethical and dangerous for someone (again, a CFA!!) to say something like "When compared to emerging-market currencies in particular, bitcoin is the superior allocation when thinking over a 20 to 30-year time horizon."

There is a potential for bitcoin to be an asset class that would be useful for LDI or other long-term investments, but it should be obvious to a CFA that the risk is too high for such an important and long-term investment when actual fixed-income securities exist.

This is probably the biggest problem bitcoin will have with institutional investment. Funds are increasingly viewing and evaluating investments in the lens of ESG and it will be hard for them to rationalize including an asset in their portfolios that increasingly pollutes, or by association a publicly-listed companies that put a lot of BTC on their balance sheets. I'm curious how this problem will be tackled especially as network difficulty increases. Not confident the community would want PoS.

I'm not as orangepilled as others here, but when talking to more technical folks I'll show them how fast lightning payments and how they can be automated. Something like tanglesheep could be an easy demonstration that takes less than a minute. It's like "currency as a distributed data structure or API". No need to do stripe integration; it's easy to do payments in any country using bitcoin without worrying about international banking/remittances, etc. Especially with things like donations for minecraft servers or paying for bot functionality, it's the easiest way to fit money "into the stack"

This will be my go-to for showing how fast and easy lightning transactions are. Sats in USA to sheep feed in Russia semi-instantly

See the term sheet here

Total NotionalUS$1,000,000,000
Coupon6.50%
Use of Funds$500M infra, $500 BTC purchase
Duration10 years
Maturation2032
Interest on notesPayable annually in january
BTC lockup5 years
BTC investment distribution50% of btc investment proceeds returned to investors once initial $500M btc investment is recovered
Bookrunner / trading venueBitfinex Securities
Issuance ProtocolLiquid Network
IssuerRepublic of El Salvador
Funding CurrenciesUSD, USDT, BTC
Minimum subscription amount$100
Nominal Value$100 (One unit of EBB1 is $100)
Citizenship by investment qualificationInvestments >= $100k will qualify investors for citizen-by-investment applications after a five year term

Yeah the key is that you need an active market to come to a consensus on some of these things like a yield curve. So while dogecoin might have an agreed market price, there may not be enough activity in something like a 8-hour swap to come to a standard rate.

This is my non-professional understanding of what author is thinking about the relationship between bitcoin and treasury yield curves. Someone should correct me if I'm making bad assumptions. I am not a teacher like Nik Bhatia and do not have certifications like a CFA. It's mostly a summary so I can externalize my understanding of this topic.

US Treasuries are considered risk free securities -- the US government will do whatever it can do to pay them out. It is priced on a yield curve -- borrowing money for 10 years (US10Y) will typically give a greater return than borrowing for 5 years (US5Y) because as you move into the future there is a greater chance of things going wrong since there is more time that passes (that's my understanding of it...) and you are taking on more and more risk. This is the time value = Money now is worth more than money later.

This US treasury yield curve is watched carefully by people that think about finance/money and is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators for capital markets, where treasuries are the primary risk-free asset. The return on this risk-free asset is known as the risk-free rate, which is the greatest return you can make at "zero risk" (the risk being the government collapses and cannot repay its obligations which is very rare and would mean a collapse of the global financial system). If you invest in equities or crypto, these will have a higher risk but likely a higher return compared to treasuries.

Since a treasury is considered risk-free, you can borrow against it very easily. In the case of this article's hypothetical situation where a university has a $500M portfolio (this portfolio contains assets that are NOT liquid cash!) and needs $100M tomorrow, the university can raise this money by selling $100M of 5-year treasuries to Citibank's Treasury Desk. Citibank can give the university $99.95M in cash in exchange for the $100M US5Y. The Citibank Treasury desk may not be able to meet the cash obligations for the $100M US5Y, but treasuries are very very very safe so it's very close to cash even though it isn't. There is only a tiny chance that the cash lent to the school will suddenly be worth more than the treasury. When the university can get the cash they can buy back their $100M US5Y, plus a fee for their services and taking on that risk.

Remember that US Treasuries are always giving a little interest (coupon). Citibank in this example is getting interest the entire time they are holding the $100M US5Y. The cash used for the university construction is not making interest, but the US treasury is actively providing value to Citibank.

So for bitcoin. The author argues that since US Treasuries are important to capital markets, their yield curves and interest rates are important indicators and are used widely for lending and understanding the current risk-free rate. The author is saying that the 8-hour perp contract is similar. There is no singular "yield curve" as there is in treasuries since the market is very disjointed. There is no one central issuer such as the US government. But the author argues that since there is similar activity in bitcoin futures funding, exchange lending, LN routing, etc that have their own interest rates, some of these may be similar to the grand US Treasury Yield Curve in regards to bitcoin financial activity.

So you could for example have spent 3BTC on an instrument that gives you a cumulative 3.5BTC in 1 year (let's call it the BTC1Y, issued by BitMEX). So you can't just use that BTC -- it's locked up in an asset until its maturity, and the reason you have it is so you can make some interest instead of sitting on cash that will devalue over time. According to the author this instrument could have a standardized, global yield curve. If you wanted to raise immediate cash to make an offer on a house in Milwaukee, you could hypothetically find someone that would take the BTC1Y on as collateral and give you cash. The lender would consider this yield curve when making assessments on how much risk to take on.

The author's thesis is "I believe the vibrant perp funding market is evidence that bitcoin is serving a monetary function on par with two of the world’s most important asset classes: US Treasuries and real estate." If we use the term "on par" to mean that the decentralized markets may converge on a similar yield rate on certain contracts, I agree. I would love to see how smart contracts would cause the emergence of certain indicators for certain activities, or what could emerge from a growing lightning network with the LNRR.

But while there could be interest rates and emergent yield curves associated with bitcoin activities such as exchange lending or perp swaps or mixing, I do not think that bitcoin will be nearly as important to capital markets as the other two assets classes: Treasuries are valuable because of their risk-free rate (backed by the USA and all its guns) and mortgages are around an insured valuable-to-humans physical asset that can be repossessed or rented out to other humans. Both these can consider rates going out to 10-30 years. It's about trust, utility, and most importantly mitigating risk. BitMEX only offers 8 hour contracts, and bitcoin has fluctuated in value over just 6 months (33k in july 2021 and 63k this year!!). So while there is the inevitable emergence of certain interest rates and yields within the bitcoin ecosystem, their emergence does not imply bitcoin fitting into the larger financial markets and have utility within capital markets until the value stabilizes. But the derivatives and contracts based on bitcoin may help it achieve this stabilization and reduce risk.

I foresee problems with username-sub collisions. Maybe just prefix users with @? Like https://stacker.news/@k00b?

In your opinion what are the best three crypto mobile apps?