The TA-guru playbook, make sure he's right either way:

• if indeed Bitcoin fiat value crashes in the next few months, he will claim it validates his claim that everyone is dumping coz of people not taking the quantum threat seriously...
• if it doesn't crash, he can say that he singlehandedly saved Bitcoin with his quantum threat manifestos~~

Nice share by @winteryeti that I missed yesterday on the importance of introducing babies to peanuts early on to actually improve their chances of not developing a peanut allergy: #1359224.

Ozone hole shrinks The hole in the Antarctic ozone layer has shrunk to its smallest size since 2019, indicating the continued recovery of Earth’s protective upper atmosphere.

The ozone hole was first discovered in 1985 and is a result of human-emitted ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), such as coolants in refrigerators and aerosol sprays. The Montreal Protocol in 1987 phased out the production and use of CFCs, which has successfully curbed emissions1. Since 1987, the average size of the ozone hole throughout the year has been gradually decreasing in size, with the smallest so far in 2019.

The ozone hole is on track to recover completely in the late 2060s, provided efforts to find climate-friendly alternatives to CFCs continues.

I remember as a kid that the hole in the ozone layer was a very big deal, they kept mentioning it at school... so indeed, it's good to read that a simple change in human behavior has been able to reverse this worrying trend.

The following one is actually very cool and I did not know that. I do remember that at the hospital, they were much more stimulating us to let our kid discover different foods compared to what my parents used to believe to be the proper way to feed us.

Peanut allergies plummet A study showed that peanut allergies in children have fallen in the United States in the past decade, in a major victory for science-based policy and decision-making5. For years, parents were told not to expose their babies to peanuts to prevent dangerous allergic reactions. But a landmark study6 in 2015 found the opposite to be true — when infants are introduced to peanut products as early as four months old, they are much less likely to become allergic to them. The study led to a change in health guidelines between 2015 and 2017.

Now, there has been a 43% decrease in peanut-allergy prevalence in children under three in the United States, compared with 2012. The same method of exposing infants to a variety of allergens also led to a 36% reduction in other food allergies. “This is a good year to have a peanut allergy or a food allergy,” says Michael Pistiner, a paediatric allergist at Mass General Brigham for Children in Boston, Massachusetts. “So much of our field has been witnessing changes for the better, this particular year has been exciting.”

“This is a great example of translating controlled trial findings into broader community level outcomes,” Pistiner says.

I remember similar claims where, later it turned out the measurements had contaminated the samples with compounds from the earth.

Looking at the video and the mention of the clean room, I will assume that they took good care of avoiding such contamination.

Pretty cool observation indeed if true.

Most individuals diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder will later receive at least one additional diagnosis during their lifetime, complicating both diagnosis and treatment. Although life experiences and environmental factors shape this risk, inherited genetic factors also contribute substantially.

This correlates with something my wife said to me the other day: people who suffer from one bad disease often also suffer from other bad diseases. It's like a small portion of the population will be carry most of the problems, kinda lika a pareto distribution of stuff: 20% of people suffer from 80% of the diseases.

Of course, if this was genetic or environmental, we could not say, but this study (published in Nature) seems to show that the former plays an important role in this occurrence of additional diagnosis for psychiatric disorders.

Yeah, he's been pretty obsessively reporting on this.

I did not realize how explicit the actual trafficking of women was.

Yeah, skimming the Wikipedia page, it looks pretty bad.

Made me wonder where other nuclear nations carried out their tests. I found China does it in the Uygur land Lop Nur and Russia used amongst others Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan.

The thought crossed my mind, too. But don't want to give scammy Changpeng too much credit...

Is an UBI in essence the same as a stimmy check, but paid out continuously rather than occasionally? From an econ point of view, the second order effects would be the same? Or are there arguments to be made for an UBI that cannot be made for a one-time government subsidy?

EDIT: don't know which cryptocurrency, the cynic in me thinks it's likely just a point-card linked to a government database.

You have to wear Bermuda shorts and gaze into the ocean?

Yeah, platforms such as Neutron, Pouch, etc experience that first-hand. As soon as you interact with the tradfi system, you'll get to deal with those regulations (but if you can be the one to do it, there is def a market for it and potential for a succesful company).

Only using BTC the good-old fashioned way lets you avoid that.

Coffeezilla seems to be all about prediction markets in his latest videos, here a new one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tE8Lt5mBQb0 (different but similar to the one shared here #1349855). You can agree or not with CZ's disdain towards prediction markets and his love of regulations, but the examples he gives clearly support @SimpleStacker's claim that

the revenue model is going to skew towards preying on gamblers.

Do you know of examples where prediction markets gave useful information other than for presidential elections?

I do like your traditional unravelling argument

It's a traditional unraveling argument.

It's only profitable for me to trade in this market if I have more knowledge (including the interpretability of the knowledge), than the average market participant. Knowing this, I drop out if I have zero private info. This elevates the average level of knowledge among the remaining participants, which elevates the knowledge requirement to be profitable. Thus, the traders who have more limited info drop out. The process continues until only the most knowledgeable trader stays in the market.

Does this rely on the efficient market hypothesis?

In an event, I agree that the revenue model is going to skew towards preying on gamblers.

I think Predyx is still fun because there are so few people joining, lots of inefficiencies to take advantage of. Also, the feeling of being able to steer the market one way or another.

For that reason, I don't feel like joining the much bigger Polymarket or Kalshi platforms, even if they had LN payments enabled.

The AI wasn’t an author anymore. It was a very capable junior collaborator who needed constant context and firm boundaries.

Imagine now the horror that ends up on my desk when it is an actual junior collaborator (read an undergrad/PhD, or a postdoc from a country where degrees are given out to anyone paying the fee) who starts using LLMs to vibecode.

Threat to bitcoin, hul