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The number of bitcoin is increasing right now with block rewards, but eventually the destruction of bitcoin will roll numbers the other direction. Satoshi's wallet, deaths, dust, sends to incorrect addresses...21 million gets reduced significantly. Distribute what's left to the entire population of Earth. Now have them all open LN channels. In 2015 Credit Suisse calculated the value of everything at $250 trillion. That's $2.5 million per satoshi not calculating lost satoshis and assuming Bitcoin has become the world currency. Only the wealthy can afford to open a channel and they will charge you to use it because it's a free market and they need to make back the on-chain fees then make a profit. You either need more layers than LN, or you need adoption to never go hyper and instead reach an affordable middle ground. Sure they can compete, but why would they if there are only a few players that run the market and you must use them? I think you're 10-15 year prediction may be spot on...but I try to look at this in 100-500 years and see if our model breaks.

Running core and tor don’t involve a scarce asset. Spread the existing bitcoin across the entire planet and then have everyone open a lightning channel. If it was today, that’s 225,000 sats per person. Miners will be running mainly on fees in the future. I disagree with @pillar I think fees go up and LN moves to centralization. The average family will not have this many sats and with a planet running on bitcoin they certainly couldn’t afford opening up a channel each. We’d likely share channels or some larger entity with resources would let you pay to access.

You bring up an excellent point. Let's take it to an extreme and then attempt to disprove it. Consider a future of hyperbitcoinization where Bitcoin price in dollars as we know them today is astronomical. Only large corporations or the elite could afford an on-chain transaction. You would not be able to open a lightning channel due to lack of mempool space and funds. Channels would all be owned by banking types (which are the grandchildren of hodlers today). Governments begin to legislate regulations regarding mempool priority. Governments may force miners to mine a certain percentage of underfunded txs in an effort to quell the satless. And the Governments could enforce it because they will be backed by the masses without Bitcoin demanding relief from mining farms and channel owners. Because no one fought for privacy improvements in the 2020s, employers pay wages in Bitcoin but to do so you must register your zpub with them so they can pay a new address each time and track their payouts for taxes. I suspect there is a point of expense where users would create fiat IOUs again or resort to trading keys instead of transactions. Maybe your small denomination addresses would be the best result because you wouldn't need as much change?

I would speculate with the loss of interest earning opportunities people are aping into LN to try and earn sats.

A legend among mortals, Darthcoin. I’ve been enjoyed your guides for some time. You do a great service for the community. Let all who hear know Lord Hades finds your work…pleasing.

Tor allows you to skip forwarding ports and opening your network to attackers. Yes, your transactions are a little slower, but it is secure. Depending on your setup, tor makes it impossible to trace your bitcoin client syncing to your IP, or attach your LN node to your IP. Of course, none of this matters if you are funding your node from an exchange because they chainalysis the UTXO and you can see who it opens to if you open announced (public) channels. Good middle ground: keep the node fully tor, but use a VPN to connect from your mobile to your node.

The darkness is not all bad ;) ...but yes, the orange glow of digital sovereignty does warm the soul. Thank you for your art.

May Persephone herself greet you when you enter my kingdom. Gratitude for the welcome!