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Seeing lots of legacy media articles about the “failed experiment” in El Salvador. Not that I put a lot of stock into articles like these, but it does seem like bitcoin losing half its value since El Salvador bought is pretty bad for the country, even if it’s just a short term problem.
Are they doing better than it looks right now? Could they be screwed if the price doesn’t go up soon? Should they have waited until it was less volatile?
Yes and no.
  1. Ignore what all media says about El Salvador situation. Just go there and live for a couple of weeks (or forever) and see how is it yourself.
  2. It was too early from the perspective of education. Those people were pushed too fast into a technology and system that practically they do not understand. SV gov together with that law it should also introduce a massive educational program for the people. They did nothing in this sense. I mean at least basic education for regular people, not macro economics and stuff like that. How to use BTC/LN, wallets, backup/restore, safety etc.
  3. Price is just a distraction, even for those poor people that their life depends on each sat. They should consider BTC in their wallet as "savings" and all the rest as "consuming". In this way they will learn how to save more money /energy for the future. Volatility is just a myth, used against BTC.
I am in direct contact with some guys from SV and things are good and became easier every day. Is just a matter of time and education. You can't change a whole fiat system in 1month/year... takes time and most important: users education.
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Volatility is not a myth. If it was, you wouldn’t be able to buy bitcoin at $20k. Bitcoin is worth what people will pay for it. If that amount drops, that’s very real. Nothing mythical about that.
1 BTC = 1 BTC, but supply and demand are just as real.
Can you please be specific about what is "becoming easier".
I also have contacts from SV and according to one of them the Salvadoreans hate BTC and fear that their salaries will be in BTC.
It is of no importance what computer people think about BTC and Powell and I see only such people reporting about the "great progress" of BTC in SV. Nobody else.
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Those in fear of Bitcoin, will always live in fear. For them all roads goes to HFSP...
I will try to convince my friends from SV to come here and post their experiences living on BTC there.
I will give you an example: https://buymesv.com
This guys started from ZERO knowledge about bitcoin, nodes, lightning, how to build a webshop. And look what he achieved until now (work in progress), following my guides about bitcoin and he built his own business around BTC. He also started to do education at local level with his clients (https://buymesv.com/metodos-de-pago/). These guys do not have another way other than go forward with Bitcoin.
If you have friends in SV, help them, educate them about bitcoin. This is all that matter.
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You should start a periodic posting here, telling us your life on bitcoin in El salvador and be sincere if you have real challenges or issues using BTC/LN. Many will read and maybe will try to do things that can improve your use of Bitcoin there.
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I'd take "move fast break things" over "move slow break things" any day of the week. I have seen lots of complaints and haters but never anything to indicate the people of El Salvador are worse off. Would appreciate a correction if I am off base there.
I understand the counterarguments, but so much of humanity is held back by boring dusty people in boring dusty buildings moving as slowly as possible. It is ironic to me that the most useful stuff government does requires some sense of immediacy. Fire service, law enforcement, disaster relief.
Hoping to go down and see for myself soon, but honestly I am most attracted to the simple fact that they are trying new things.
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Nicki & James in El Salvador - live AMA session with a couple that moved to El Salvador
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No doubt El Salvador is paying the price for btc's recent price action, but most currencies have suffered against the US dollar as the end of the fiat system accelerates. Look at the Turkish Lira or even the euro. It also did not help that this was not an organic, from the ground up adoption, but rather a command from a centralized government. Enemies of bitcoin will portray this as a failure until the halvening in 2024, when Bukele will look like a genius.
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Are they, today, free to use bitcoin for cross-border remittance (inbound and outbound), in commerce, and in personal transactions?
If the answer is yes, then El Salvador was not too early. And nowhere else that has either informally or formally recognized the right to use bitcoin is not too early.
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El Salvador is doing absolutely great. The media and its backers (at least the IMF) are obviously wanting the experiment to fail, and they'll tell any lie they think might have a chance of happening to convince people it has failed. That won't be possible for much longer.
The fact is that tourism is WAY up in El Salvador, the national debt is rapidly being paid off, and all of the biggest companies down there (including McDonalds and lots of chains you use) find BTC easy to use and preferable to accepting dollars.
But if you watch the world media you'll only hear about the first few days a year ago when the Chivo wallet was having issues.
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I doubt these big companies pay their employees in BTC. And I doubt much of their turnover is in BTC.
But do they at least use BTC to pay each other? And is their use of BTC increasing or not?
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Fair questions that are hard to quantify. Youtube's full of anecdotal data of Salvadorans using it, but we simply don't have that data either way. Many of us also understand that it's very hard to get that data without breaching privacy laws.
What we can see is growth of industries like tourism, that would be obvious places to use it. Tourism is way TF up. Like 2X up the national average! Plenty of evidence that this is Bitcoin tourism, too. So if all these tourists are paying in BTC, somebody sure AF is accepting it there.
What I'd really like to see now is remittance flow data. I'm hoping that Bukele has been sitting on that and will release it on the Bitcoin Law anniversary this week... Here's hoping!
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let's take a look if they can get over the current bear cycle, their bond market will be the biggest tell
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I dont think El Salvador was early. And its not a failed experiment either. Some country had to give us all a start and El Salvador did. Infact, its just a matter of time and education, people there will consume like no other thing. And because of El Salvador, there have been so many learnings for all our countries.
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Bitcoin stands for 2% of remittances, despite the obvious benefits. As I feared, essentially nobody uses Bitcoin.
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Only time will tell how early or on time El Salvador was. I suspect we'll know within five years.
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From G20 CBDC report:
In late 2021, the number of users of the Sand Dollar was around 20,000, or roughly 5% of the population.
So it wasn't. El Salvador just fine. Even CBDC could show better numbers only in places like China.
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It looks a bit that way in hindsight.
But if you look at GDP & the amount of interest in El Salvador because of this move it will turn around in a few years.
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