@jeff
46296 stacked

Zion and ArcadeCity have a few things in common.

It all feels like a mix of vaporware and beta-grade software that is perpetually either coming soon, being rebranded, being rearchitected, or almost ready.

Hope to be proven wrong.

Just go check-out the PRs on some of the repos for both projects.

Could you inspect the mempool in the days leading up to the prize block and outbid competing transaction's miner fee?

I doubt it, because you state that this is "well-known", so miners would know too. A miner would cherry-pick her own transaction to spend the UTXO. The only way it would be rational for the miner to mine your tx instead of her own, would be if you offered a fee worth more than the UTXO itself.

What's are your tactics to spend it first?

Assuming it's a large enough UTXO to justify it, I'd try to time the purchase of some cloud mining, and try extra hard to win that block, and include my own tx in the block.

Curious to hear the answer about propagating a "not-yet-but-soon-will-be"-transaction. I believe it would, or at least should, propagate.

Fun discussion.

hedge all our risk

How?

Can you walk me through the steps you take on the other side of an options trade?

It does help, thank-you very much. Because there is no "right" choice, it means there is no "wrong" answer. That in and of itself is signal. I can pick a path optimizing for other criteria.

I did some searching based on your input, to check the resources out there for LN. Here are my notes so far (maybe they will help somebody else).

Lightning Community

TIL there is a community hub for building on LN with a Guide. And they have a javascript and python sections.

Awesome Lightning

There is a GitHub Repo with an open PR calling out WebLN Guide and a Tutorial section.

Bit old, this Coindesk-Lightning example app is all python, but also used Django targeting Heroku.

Django

The community mentioned above has a guide from 2022

Vue.js

I found this which has a repo for making the widget.

Next.js

I'm tempted to explore using this, just because the stacker.news repo exists and I can reason about the app's architecture & example. Plus, maybe it might become easier for me to contribute.

It's pronounced "lenerl". I think its French. Le Nerl.

Any plans to change that? If so, when?

This is not sustainable, and I'm worried you will blow up in an ungraceful way.

There is no scenario I can see where all three of these are true in the fulness of time:

  1. You stay the only counterparty
  2. You scale the business
  3. You don't lose user's funds (or at least their pnl)

It can work if you stay small (and can afford the losses internally). It can work (well, function, temporarily) if users lose funds. It can work if you stop being the only counterparty.

It can also work longer, if you're structurally padding contract prices with an arb-like pricing spread in your favor. If you're doing this, the internet will catch you eventually and it could end your business when you least expect it.

If I'm wrong, happy to be enlightened on whatever mechanism you're using. Maybe there is something I haven't reasoned about. Maybe you have some kind of insurance contract. Maybe you have a market-making deal somewhere with a deep-pocketed exchange. Would also be happy to jump on a call to consult to help you fix it. I legit, would rather help you fix it, than sit here and play chicken-little.

Hope I'm wrong, wishing you and team the best.

Thank you! First time I've ever received streaming sats.

I was reflecting... you may have kind of went from discussing the future, to making history today. Do you know if you we're you the first 2.0 pod caster to pay a listener v4v in real-time?

What a great question. Sounds like that Jeffrey guy is on the ball. ;)

I think the price action over trailing few months has reduced the dopamine associated with Bitcoin in general, so we get this (hopefully) temporary effect of lower engagement.

Do we know if LNMarkets is still the only counterparty to every option contract they sell?

https://fixedfloat.com/

Please don't search google for "Fixed Float", there is a scam ad running that directs you to a scam website that looks identical but at a different domain.

Ninja Edit: Or for the pros out there, click the ad, then navigate somewhere else. Drain their ad spend budget. Every click might save somebody from being scammed.

Octagon Networks has finished the process of converting its liquid assets and entire balance sheet into Bitcoin.

+

Today will be by my last day at Octagon

Seems like an odd combo of a blog-post, no? It's like -- "We switched to sats, my work here is done. BTW, I'm out, good luck sukkaz"

I think this is a very interesting data engineering, governance, legal and economic problem combined into one. But its probably going to be a thankless job.

Add in considerations such as...

  • Private contracts marking something to market, then using BTC, for future payments, require both parties agreeing on price feed (Exchanges listed) and methodology (Eg. "last tick", "VWAP of trailing X amount of time", "midpoint of bid-ask spread", etc.).
  • The futures markets include a premium/discount, such as counterparty risk, that isn't relevant to every deal, but the aggregate probably has signal worth considering.

I was mulling what would be the cheapest way to host a pseudo-decentralized reference rate that had an idempotent methodology such that if anybody had the same deployment/infra, it would spit out the same number at the same time.

I say pseudo-decentralized, for lack of a better word. Not sure how to frame a "centralized set of input feeds" + "calculated by a federated army of reliable altruistic data-engineers".

This project is open source, no? Albeit, it does likely have a business model behind it.

And it's a super relevant project.

Lots of different incentives to post on SN.

I think it's cool and okay. At least, by me.

This post

7h old post 10.4K sats from 3 users 8 comments

Amboss AMA

A few days old 17K sats from 23 users 52 comments

🤔

I think the rate is more important than the tab.

The rate is a signal to the market about how serious they are to hire for the role.

The tab can be topped up willy nilly. Or probably reduced also.

I'd consider one or some of the following:

  • moving it to a tooltip over the post
  • making it a full sentence
  • show a per-hour rate
  • use the words post-price/post-cost/post-fee/post-rate somewhere

not mean everyone can just earn 2%

I suppose there is an implicit expectation that a RFR is the same rate that anybody can get. I guess I was excluding that. You're right -- for now. Follow up, rhetorical, question: If the network gets larger, and a node can use their capital to create 2% yield opportunities, could they securitize that product, then sell it at a different discount rate (after they have committed their own capital?). Eg. I have 1.94 BTC, I sell a channel at a 2% APY, could I borrow against that, at a rate better than 2%, say 1%, and instantly pocket the difference while getting capital to sell another channel at 2%? If so, that 1% will be a RFR that everybody could access. Admittedly, probably not, because we're back to counter-party-risk territory.

most people should be glad if they can break even

If you bin this by amount of capital, does it change? Like, "Most people with under 0.1 BTC should be glad if they can break even. If you have over 3 BTC, it gets more realistic to expect something closer to the RFR"

I'm making up the 0.1 and 3 numbers, but is there a statement like that, that holds?

I think the Amboss AMA includes one of the coolest data-points in economics.

2% APY. The decentralized risk-free-rate.

It's the closest thing I can think of, to a risk free rate without some embedded default risk. I think it might the first of its kind.

And, also, it's neat. :)

connects to your Lightning node and lets you manage it anywhere you go

Seems like a too-good-to-be-safe trade-off between security and flexibility.