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Ok so first off even Mike Saylor says you should just buy bitcoin in self-custody, stocks are for wall st gamblers and money changers. But IF you have some reason that you have money LOCKED up in wall st (like a 401k, not robinhood) where you cannot remove it and buy real bitcoin with---
Then you should understand what is going on with these "bitcoin companies" before you play the casino game. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Let's break it down into some "math", with a couple examples after:
"Sats per share":
Total Bitcoins held outright / (divided by) Total shares outstanding
"Bitcoin company value":
(Total bitcoins held outright / Shares outstanding) + premium
"bitcoin company premium":
The value of the company perceived by the market that exists separate to its holdings of bitcoin.
This "premium" can be referenced by another metric on bitcointreasuries.net: "mNAV"
For example daddy MSTR currently sits at 1.885x over the value of it's bitcoin, showing that the market is bullish on it's ability to acquire additional bitcoin. You can also use this metric as a warning for reversals, for example the peak mNAV reached last year was 3.3 which flashed the peak price $437 of MSTR in November 2024. The "sats per share" at that point was about 160,000, while today with the stock price at $350, the sats per share is 200,000. MSTR has continued acquiring bitcoin while the stock price has declined, setting it up for another potential run up past 2.0 mNAV if market conditions allow.
What causes a change in mNAV?
The company taking actions like buying bitcoin or issuing (printing) more shares.
+
You and me figuring this out and making bets about what we think it is going to be in the future by trading the stock.
Look through the charts after clicking on each company name.
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/microstrategy
Now example of CEP/XXI:
XXI says they are currently at 11,783 satoshi per share
This is based on 31,500 bitcoin, divided by 267.32 million shares.
Now, if you apply the above principles you would input the current price of bitcoin to get the expected share price.
bitcoin = 95,000
267.32M shares of company with 31,500 btc = $11.19 (1.0 mNAV)
But wait, there's more:
ALWAYS READ THE ACTUAL SEC FILINGS. These are legal disclosures required by US Jurisdiction and are arguably the reason why the world considers the US Stock Market to be "safe". If you don't read the real legal documents yourself, you will be lead to the slaughter.
First thing to investigate is WHAT VALUE these "CEP" shares are going to be.
The disclosure says 1 to 1 with XXI.
QUOTE:
"continuing as the surviving entity (the “SPAC Merger”), and with Company shareholders receiving one share of Pubco Class A common stock for each Class A ordinary share"
Also important this document we can see that there is a scheme involving Tether to acquire an additional 10,500 bitcoin, so the total bitcoin at merger time (creating the entity XXI as a public company) will be exactly 42,000 bitcoin.
QUOTE:
"Tether has also agreed to purchase additional Bitcoin that it will sell at the closing to Pubco for additional shares of Pubco in an amount equal to 10,500 less any Bitcoin contributed by Equity PIPE Investors (as defined below),"
What this means TO ME is that the new company XXI will have
42,000 bitcoin
267.32M regular stock
bitcoin price = $93k
Our equation can be updated as such:
(bitcoin) 42k * (bitcoin price) $93k = $3.9 Billion company marketcap
/ 267.32M (shares) = (stock price, mNAV 1.0) $14.61
Now what if just maybe Wall st took 2 days to decide that the mNAV "PREMIUM" should be exactly the same as MSTR at 1.8x ?
= $26.30 CEP current price
I cannot say that "you are wrong"!
I believe what I believe because it is helpful to me, it helps me live in an "upright" and "peaceful" manner, like Plato or Buddha would recommend.
If Shmorgledudism is helpful and productive for your life than I think that is great. I do not need to force others to believe what I believe. But I will try to share if I can.
Bitcoin is already a medium of exchange. It had no value until people started to exchange things for it.
Now bitcoin is becoming a "store of value" -securities, ETFs, companies etc...
Next bitcoin will also be a unit of account.
You could say there is spiritual war going on for thousands of years and the best way to attack people and drive them away from God would be by corrupting religion and using it for evil!
My people perish for lack of knowledge.
Hosea 4:6
Have you checked our Jordan Peterson's new book? "We who wrestle with God"
It is really helping me understand the old testament, which I always had a lot of trouble with.
I believe that God is something like "the alignment" or Truth and Justice in the highest sense. When we align ourselves with Truth and Justice and Natural Law, we can say we are following God.
For example, Bitcoin is a sound and just weight and measure, while fiat money is evil:
The Lord detests dishonest scales, but accurate weights find favor with him.
Proverbs 11:1
It is important to understand that religion has been used for centuries by humans for evil. Following "the teachings of God" is something that is beneficial to you. Not a coercive guilt trip.
Spiritual works like the bible (and others!) can help give us clues:
God said to Moses, “I AM WHO I AM. This is what you are to say to the Israelites: ‘I AM has sent me to you.’”
Exodus 3:14
(Jesus said) I give them eternal life, and they shall never perish; no one will snatch them out of my hand. My Father, who has given them to me, is greater than all; no one can snatch them out of my Father’s hand. I and the Father are one.
John 10:28-30
- So I cannot explain to you all the properties of God, this is what I know so far, and what I believe. God is someone who helps me and guides me towards what is good for me.
Including the claim of the negative. "there is no god" ? People throughout time have imagined Gods, angels, or demons- what is this new claim that nothing spiritual is real?
Science only needs one miracle: the moment of creation, the "big bang"
Not to mention the "dark matter" that no one can explain.
Yes I do. I believe in the LORD, who is the one who is, the before and after, the God of creation. I see everything as evidence of the LORD. His law is written within and without on all of his work. We are his wayward children who have failed to follow his law. Instead we choose to know good and evil, and thus we see a lot of suffering and evil in the world that would not otherwise exist.
My God is the one who sent his Son Jesus Christ to us 2000 years ago. Jesus followed the law perfectly to fulfill it and the prophets. He allowed us to put him to death by unjust torture and crucifixion. He did this for our sake and in our place as a sacrifice for our law-breaking. You can read more about what his message is in the bible, look up the book "Matthew" or "John" in any translation you prefer.
It is a short read- see what you think about the story of Jesus as you read it- these books are included in classical education as philosophy and ethics. The message and teachings are very valuable, even if you do not believe the story is "real" at first.
There are however, legitimate and proven historical records of the life of Jesus. There are witnesses that saw and stayed with him AFTER his death and resurrection on the third day.
This image was created by a flash of light so bright it imprinted a photographic negative on rough cloth, at the moment of Jesus Christ's resurrection from the dead.
Woh bro. Chill the fuck out
They “borrowed” billions to buy more coins.
“Legal tender” laws are statist and non voluntary so it’s good people are not forced to accept Bitcoin.
Governments will not save the people. We have to save ourselves
Human laws are not valid anyway
How in the world are you going to stop war if the government can keep stealing money from everyone whenever it wants?
human rights are a shitcoin
human rights are given to you by the STATE. They can change according to documents because the term specifies hu-MAN as being the authority who granted them to you.
Natural Rights are God-Given and completely outside the authority of the man-made "STATE". NATURAL means: outside of Man's authority or dominion.
You don't have to "believe in God" to recognize Natural Rights.
(although, I personally ask you to take some time for your soul and reflect on the Gospel of the Lord Jesus Christ.)
The chief of these Rights granted to us by Nature's Creator (God) is the Natural Right to Property.
Your Foremost Property is your own body and soul.
This means all forms of slavery, coercion, theft, and force etc- done by any individual or group to another individual or group are unjust and dishonorable before Nature's Almighty God.
Don't trust anyone except Jesus Christ. God Bless